Why are housing prices in Guangzhou so cheap? ——In-depth analysis of the current situation of Guangzhou’s property market
In recent years, Guangzhou's housing prices have become much more "people-friendly" compared to other first-tier cities (such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen), triggering widespread discussions. This article will analyze the reasons behind Guangzhou’s housing prices from the perspectives of data comparison, policy impact, market supply and demand, and other hot topics in the past 10 days.
1. Guangzhou housing prices compared with other first-tier cities
| city | Average house price (yuan/㎡) | Year-on-year increase |
|---|---|---|
| Beijing | 68,200 | +3.2% |
| Shanghai | 66,500 | +2.8% |
| Shenzhen | 72,000 | +4.1% |
| Guangzhou | 42,300 | +1.5% |
It can be seen from the data that Guangzhou's housing prices are only 58.7% of Shenzhen's and 62% of Beijing's. The gap is significant. In the past 10 days, "Guangzhou housing price depression" has become a hotly discussed keyword on social platforms, with search volume increasing by 35% month-on-month.
2. Policy and land supply factors
1.Ample supply of land: Guangzhou’s residential land supply will reach 800 hectares in 2023, 2.3 times that of Shenzhen. Sufficient supply has effectively stabilized land prices.
| city | Residential land supply in 2023 (hectares) |
|---|---|
| Guangzhou | 800 |
| Shenzhen | 350 |
2.Differentiated control policies: Some areas in Guangzhou (such as Zengcheng and Conghua) still implement a lower down payment ratio (20%), lowering the threshold for home purchase.
3. Analysis of market supply and demand structure
| indicator | Guangzhou | Shenzhen |
|---|---|---|
| Permanent population (10,000 people) | 1,870 | 1,760 |
| Commercial housing inventory (10,000 square meters) | 1,200 | 480 |
| Removal cycle (months) | 14 | 8 |
Data shows that although Guangzhou has a larger population, its inventory is 2.5 times that of Shenzhen. The pressure for sales is greater, and developers continue to increase their promotional efforts.
4. Hot topics of discussion
1.“Cost-effectiveness” has become a high-frequency word: Xiaohongshu-related notes have increased by 42% in the past 10 days. Netizens generally believe that "with the same budget, you can buy three houses in Guangzhou, but you can only buy one house in Shenzhen."
2.Guangfo city effect: Housing prices in some areas of Foshan are only 50% of those in Guangzhou, so cross-city housing purchases divert some of the demand.
3.Differences in industrial distribution: Guangzhou’s multi-center development model (Pearl River New Town, Pazhou, Financial City, etc. disperse the demand for home purchases) is different from Shenzhen’s “unipolar agglomeration”.
5. Forecast of future trends
Expert opinion shows:Guangzhou housing prices are expected to remain stable in 2024, the core areas (Tianhe, Haizhu) may have a 3-5% increase, and the suburbs may continue to trade price for volume. Consistent with the survey results of the recent hot search topic #How to choose a house in first-tier cities, 38% of the respondents believe that Guangzhou is the "most cost-effective choice."
To sum up, the relatively “cheap” housing prices in Guangzhou are the result of the combined effects of land policies, market supply and demand, and urban development models. For home buyers, they need to rationally look at the underlying factors behind price differences based on their own needs.
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